How Solar & Battery Payback Works in 2026

Solar economics changed in 2025. The Federal Cheaper Home Batteries Program launched 1 July 2025, applying a 30% discount on installed batteries via the same STC mechanism that subsidises rooftop solar. At the same time, feed-in tariffs collapsed to 4–10c/kWh as the grid saturated with daytime solar — making self-consumption (and therefore batteries) far more valuable than export.

The two savings streams

Self-consumption — solar electricity you use directly, offsetting retail rates of 30–45c/kWh. Without a battery, typical households self-consume 25–35% of generation (the rest is exported during the day when nobody is home). With a battery, self-consumption rises to 70–90%.

Export (feed-in tariff) — what your retailer pays for unused solar. State minimums range from ~2c (WA) to ~7c (TAS), with retailers offering anywhere from 3c to 12c on competitive plans. Don't compare on FIT alone — high-FIT plans usually have higher daily supply charges that wipe out the gain.

Typical 2026 system costs

A fully installed 6.6 kW solar system: $5,500–$9,000 depending on installer, panels, and STC zone. A 10 kWh battery: ~$10,000–$13,000 before the 30% rebate, ~$7,000–$9,000 after. Get three quotes — installed price varies by 30%+ between installers for identical equipment.

What this calculator does and doesn't do

Models annual generation by state irradiation, applies your usage pattern to estimate self-consumption split, computes savings against retail and FIT rates, then divides system net cost by annual savings for payback. Not modelled: battery degradation (typically 1–2%/yr), retail price inflation (would shorten payback), specific time-of-use tariffs (would slightly improve battery payback), and panel degradation (~0.5%/yr). For decisions, get installer quotes with their own performance modelling. See Energy.gov.au Solar PV and Batteries.

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Methodology & sources

Daily generation uses Bureau of Meteorology long-term irradiation averages by capital city (kWh per kW per day, annual mean). System cost defaults reflect installed prices observed in 2025–26 industry surveys (Solar Choice, SunWiz, Clean Energy Regulator). Federal Cheaper Home Batteries rebate is modelled at 30% off installed battery cost (the published headline rate; actual STC value depends on installation date and zone). Retail electricity rates and feed-in tariffs vary by retailer and plan — defaults shown are mid-range as of early 2026. The result is an estimate for general guidance — not personal financial advice or installer-specific performance modelling.